Area Forecast Discussion

000

FXUS64 KJAN 131819 AAA

AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

1219 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY

GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE WORDING MADE AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS

SLIDING THROUGH THE CWFA CURRENTLY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND N OF

HIGHWAY 82 AND E OF I-55 WILL BRUSH NE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH

MID AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS THIN OUT EVEN MORE. UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL

MOISTURE RACING INTO THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW ONLY A NARROW TIME FRAME

FOR CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MORE

UPPER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INVADE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY.

BIGGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AND BEGINS

SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS/NAM TRENDING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY

SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THAT

CROSSES THE MID SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM

OVERNIGHT ALSO MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH JUST ABOUT ALL FACETS OF

THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...MORE DETAILS

COMING ON THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 6K FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN NERN MS YIELDING BRIEF MVFR

VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL

REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 09Z TONIGHT WHEN SOME MORE SHALLOW

MVFR FOG DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

JACKSON       65  41  68  54 /  14   5  14 100

MERIDIAN      66  37  68  56 /  13   4   9  88

VICKSBURG     64  42  67  53 /  18   5  13 100

HATTIESBURG   69  40  68  58 /   7   5  17  83

NATCHEZ       64  44  68  54 /  20   4  21 100

GREENVILLE    60  43  66  52 /  24   5  10 100

GREENWOOD     60  41  67  53 /  24   5   7 100

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MS...NONE.

LA...NONE.

AR...NONE.

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