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Mesoscale Discussion 2198 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SW MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 849... VALID 142040Z - 142215Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 849 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TORNADOES...HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ROTATING STORMS. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN LA AND IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT LA EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR BATON ROUGE LA. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN SE LA AND MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF INITIATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS NOT YET CERTAIN...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN SW AND/OR CNTRL LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...THE 18Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG SHEAR PROFILE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2. THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY ENHANCED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES BECOMING GREATER DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 11/14/2006 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29339067 29369213 29609356 30319377 30799368 31329331 31329181 31129068 30829039 30209038 |
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