Reflections

 

How did I perform as a forecaster?  Not as well as I'd hoped, but better than I'd ever dreamed.  It was very intimidating to find out that we were competing in the contest against higher-level meteorology students, professors and weather professionals on a national scale.  To do as well as I did, which was continually congratulated and encouraged by the instructors, is mind-boggling.  That alone has given me more confidence in myself to know and recognize patterns and scenarios which affect a forecast.  I think this plays into how my attitude has changed over the course of this contest.  I came into this contest, into this whole program, with nothing but the desire to learn tempered with low confidence that I could do as well as those with more background.  And knowing that I can do as well as some with more of that background gives me the confidence to go forward, as well as to question the 'experts' when something doesn't look like I learned it should. 

Now I want to talk about my process, because I'm rather proud of the template I created for daily forecasting.  This template changed considerably from the first city to the last, so I'll just go through and describe how it started, how it changed, and why it changed.  The changes were twofold:  1) changes in what tools to access for specific data, and 2) changes in tools accessed for different cities.

My template started out with the climate norms, local AFD 7 Day forecast, MOS data (one-stop and eWall), eWall progs, HPC fronts and surface analyses plus QPF, the current surface analysis, and the local area forecast discussion.  For some reason, I was thinking the eWall MOS was different from the one-stop MOS, which it's not, so the eWall MOS got dropped later on.  This got me through Orlando and Fresno.  For Caribou, we were cautioned that we needed to be looking at the synoptic scale parameters first, then hone down to the smaller details, such as MOS.  My template changed to climate norms, the climate report for the previous day, the current surface analysis, satellite and radar, the HPC fronts maps and QPF, the eWall progs, and the local AFD 7 day forecast and forecast discussion.  In Caribou I added the Zone and Point forecasts, which I really liked because they gave another source for comparison of data.  I also added the cloud cover progs from the eWall, as well as FOUS data when precipitation was possible.  During Caribou is when I also added the Tabular data, which is still one of my favorite tools.  The Caribou forecasting weeks were when I chose to use the SREF ensembles, and after using them decided to add them to my template. 

What doesn't show in my notes is the specific depth to which I used each of these tools in the template.  I went from cursory glances to detailed notes on each of the progs, HPC maps and QPF, cloud cover progs, and area forecast discussions.  I was now up to 2 pages of notes rather than a page and a half.  This honed template, perfected during Caribou, brought me through Jackson, where MOS got relegated to the second page and the AFDs were brought up to the first page.  This change of order allowed the MOS, Tabular, Zone, Point, and AFD 7 Day forecasts to be together and easier to compare.  FOUS and SREF were on the second page with these statistical model data.

For the Grand Junction practice week (week of Thanksgiving when the contest took a break), I put more detail into MOS by adding lines for the two 06Z lows on the X/N line, since the low was sometimes occurring toward the end of the forecast period rather than the beginning.  This possibility was brought to my attention on the boards, which gave me a much-needed new perspective in looking at the MOS data.  I also added Coded data, since Grand Junction provided that option.  During Grand Junction practice I began to make a chart of the Low, High, Max Sustained Winds, and Precipitation, which made the comparisons even easier, visually.  By the time I got to the official Grand Junction weeks, my template had grown to 3 full pages, and by the end of the two weeks, I was adding more commentary, spilling onto a fourth page.  I also added the meteogram data for hindsight along with the METARS and Climate Report, which I'd always been noting along with the WxChallenge finals.  This gave me four final comparisons for actuals rather than three. 

I saved all of this, but printed out all MOS, Tabular, METARS, Climate Reports, and meteograms.  During Jackson's squall line and Grand Junction's arctic storms, I also printed out some of the AFDs, Hazardous Weather Outlooks, Mesoscale Discussions, and Short Range Forecasts.  In addition, I printed the discussion boards so I could go back and follow what we were thinking during the forecast times.  There were also some extremely relevant lessons in those boards, and I hope they can be archived.

Attached is a typed copy of my final template.  However, all my work was done by hand in a notebook.  This allowed me to sit in front of the computer going from site to site and write down notes for each one.  It was a time consuming process, but only by delving in so deeply could I see the patterns and comparisons I needed in order to form a forecast.  Sometimes I checked the boards first, sometimes not until I'd looked at everything and had my notes.  But the boards proved invaluable in pointing out things I wasn't seeing, as well as validating things I did see.  Many times I wished there would've been more discussion, but time and timing were a constant challenge for all of us during this semester. 

What's funny are the two days that I was under severe time constraints, and the results of my hurried forecasts.  The first was in Jackson, where my job was demanding that day.  I wrote in my notes "time constraints, read discussion, which included AFD and FOUS, looked at MOS, HPC and eWall progs, read Jackson climate."  This was the first day of Jackson's forecasting weeks, and my high was only one degree off and my low was right on.  However, what suffered from the time constraints were winds and precipitation, especially the latter. 

The other hurried forecast was for Grand Junction, because we left work early due to sleet in Kansas City, and I knew I couldn't trust my home DSL to be up during inclement weather (and as a matter of fact, we did lose power for two hours that evening).  So I looked at the HPC maps and QPF, satellite, MOS, Tabular, Zone, Coded, AFD 7 day, and the area forecast discussion, but I didn't write down any notes except some brief commentary.  My high came in one off and my low was 3 off, but my winds were way off.  This was the lesson learned week when MOS busted so big on forecasting the high temperature due to snowpack, and the down-valley winds picked up in spite of the snowpack. 

As for strategies to incorporate, I think the template works well, and the comparison chart and more detailed commentary are invaluable.  Looking at the eWall progs and HPC fronts maps gives a nice synoptic view of what's happening or coming up, before looking at the more localized details and statistical data.  One strategy that usually comes naturally to me is discerning patterns, which is why I really like the comparison chart.  But that's also important in looking at the eWall progs.  I need to learn to better compare the models as to which ones are trending faster and which ones trending slower, as well as which ones have more consensus.  I also still need to get more familiar with the various biases of the different models, and learn to keep that in mind when looking at them.  Another thing that I think could be helpful in formulating a forecast would be the ability to look at the data early, then mid-day, then once more later to provide a three-fold comparison.  This would help in identifying trends and patterns immensely.  I also need to look at upper-air data a lot more - I've been remiss in studying 850 mb, 500 mb, and 250 mb charts for winds and jet streaks, as well as temperatures and pressure.  I will add these to my template, as well as some of the SPC Forecast Tools - I don't want to forget how to use these.

And finally, now that I've had to forecast for places I'm not familiar with, I would like to forecast for the skies I see around me - meaning that I could see tangible evidence of what did or didn't happen that was based on maps and statistics.  I'd really like to put that together - "feel the forecast."  For example, the most exciting time was the Jackson squall line when I read it, I saw it in data, then later I saw it happen on radar.  I love that!  But it also applies to warm, sunny days and calm nights - to be able to see or feel the tangible evidence of the forecast high, low, winds and precipitation.  However, by studying different places I've learned a lot about climate and geography that I didn't know before.  And that was very interesting in itself.

In summary:

 

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