Tornado Threat for Friday June 27th

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Tornado Threat for Friday June 27th

Postby w9awx » 26 Jun 2008 20:18

From the SPC

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 TO 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND THIS
WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE GREATEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY OVER WI...ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
FLOW AT 850 MB FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MULTICELL
LINEAR WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IF A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AND
PERSISTS SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...CNTRL MO...SE KS AND NRN OK THROUGH
LATE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS.
Gregg Schulz
w9awx
Associate Skywarn Coordinator
w9awx
 
Posts: 12
Joined: 15 Jun 2008 20:07

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